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1 泛热带气候相互作用 2019-03-26

文章首次全面回顾和总结了目前对于热带太平洋—印度洋—大西洋气候系统之间相互作用的最新研究进展。 文章指出,热带太平洋气候系统变化主要由快速的海温—风场正反馈过程和延迟的风场—海洋温跃层—海温负反馈过程共同决定,热带印度洋和大西洋海温变化可通过引起太平洋风场异常来调制上述反馈过程进而影响太平洋。文章在系统总结已有研究基础上,提炼出未来研究的关键科学问题及挑战,并指出深入认识和理解热带跨海盆相互作用的动力机制是提升季节至年代际气候预测能力的一条重要途径,也有助于提高对未来气候变化预估的准确性。 全文链接:http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/eaav4236 查看详细>>

来源:《科学》 点击量:1975

2 全球变暖下的海洋热浪 2019-03-26

文章指出1982—2016年全球变暖使海洋热浪的发生频率加倍,未来全球变暖背景下海洋热浪的发生概率、持续时间和强度都会急剧增加。研究结果表明,在过去的几十年中,海洋热浪已经变得更持久、更频繁、更广泛和更强烈,而且这种趋势将在进一步的全球变暖下加速。具体表现为:①1982—2016年海洋热浪发生的数量加倍,预计这一数字将进一步增加。②即使人类采取行动,将全球变暖幅度控制在《巴黎协定》确定的2℃以内,海水异常升温的海洋热浪频率、强度与持续时间依然会大幅增加,海洋热浪的天数会由现在的约33天增为84天。③在“基准情景”(BAU)下,21世纪末全球变暖幅度会达到3.5℃,在这种升温水平下,海洋热浪的发生空间范围将是工业化前的21倍,持续时间达到平均112天。④西部的热带太平洋和北极海洋变化预计最明显。⑤当前,87%的海洋热浪是人为变暖引起的,在全球变暖超过2℃的情况下,这一比例将增加到近100%。研究人员指出,在全球变暖的情况下,海洋热浪会变得非常频繁和极端,可能会将海洋生物和生态系统推向其韧性的极限并超越该极限,最终导致不可逆转的变化。 全文链接:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0383-9 查看详细>>

来源:自然杂志 点击量:2141

3 古近纪气候变暖开始大西洋翻转环流增强 2019-03-26

摘要:During the Late Cretaceous and early Cenozoic the Earth experienced prolonged climatic cooling most likely caused by decreasing volcanic activity and atmospheric CO2 levels.However,the causes and mechanisms of subsequent major global warming culminating in the late Paleocene to Eocene greenhouse climate remain enigmatic.We present deep and intermediate water Nd-isotope records from the North and South Atlantic to decipher the control of the opening Atlantic Ocean on ocean circulation and its linkages to the evolution of global climate.The marked convergence of Nd-isotope signatures 59 million years ago indicates amajor intensification of deep-water exchange between the North and South Atlantic,which coincided with the turning point of deep-water temperatures towards early Paleogene warming.We propose that this intensification of Atlantic overturning circulation in concert with increased atmospheric CO2 from continental rifting marked aclimatic tipping point contributing to amore efficient distribution of heat over the planet. 全文链接:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07457-7 查看详细>>

来源:《自然杂志》 点击量:33161

4 二氧化碳不断增加情况下海冰减少导致北极扩大 2019-03-26

摘要:Warming in the Arctic has been much faster than the rest of the world in both observations and model simulations,a phenomenon known as the Arctic amplification(AA)whose cause is still under debate.By analyzing data and model simulations,here we show that large AA occurs only from October to April and only over areas with significant sea-ice loss.AA largely disappears when Arctic sea ice is fixed or melts away.Periods with larger AA are associated with larger sea-ice loss,and models with bigger sea-ice loss produce larger AA.Increased outgoing longwave radiation and heat fluxes from the newly opened waters cause AA,whereas all other processes can only indirectly contribute to AA by melting sea-ice.We conclude that sea-ice loss is necessary for the existence of large AA and that models need to simulate Arctic sea ice realistically in order to correctly simulate Arctic warming under increasing CO2. 全文链接:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07954-9 查看详细>>

来源:《自然杂志》 点击量:2138

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