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温室气候变暖导致东太平洋厄尔尼诺现象的变异性增加

编译者:yuwy发布时间:2019-1-18点击量:10776 来源栏目:重要文献

文章标题:Increased variability of eastern Pacific El Niño under greenhouse warming

文章作者:Wenju Cai, Guojian Wang, Boris Dewitte, Lixin Wu, Agus Santoso, Ken Takahashi, Yun Yang, Aude Carréric & Michael J. McPhaden

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0776-9

原文链接:https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0776-9

内容提要:厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)是地球上主要且最重要的气候变化,其特征是厄尔尼诺现象期间赤道太平洋海表温度(SSTs)升温和拉尼娜现象期间的降温。ENSO事件往往有一个对应于最大SST异常的位置中心,在赤道太平洋中部(5° S–5° N, 160° E–150° W)或赤道东太平洋(5° S–5° N, 150°–90° W));这两种不同类型的ENSO事件分别称为CP-ENSO和EP-ENSO。由于缺乏关于赤道东太平洋海温对这种变暖响应的模型间协议,ENSO如何在未来温室效应引起的气候变暖下发生变化尚不清楚。本研究采用CMIP5气候模型模拟了两种不同的ENSO体系,并发现未来EP-ENSO SST变异性的强劲增长但EP-NENSO的异常模式及其中心在不同模型中有很大区别,无法用单一指数代表。然而,尽管每个模型中异常中心的位置不同,但研究发现在所考虑的大多数模型中,每个异常中心的SST变异性都有很大的增加。这种可变性的增加很大程度上是由于温室气候变暖引起的赤道太平洋上层海洋分层的加剧,从而增强了海洋-大气耦合。SST变异的增加意味着“强”EP-El Niño事件(对应于大的SST异常)和相关的极端天气事件的数量增加。

论文摘要:The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant and most consequential climate variation on Earth, and is characterized by warming of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the El Niño phase and cooling during the La Niña phase. ENSO events tend to have a centre—corresponding to the location of the maximum SST anomaly—in either the central equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 160° E–150° W) or the eastern equatorial Pacific (5° S–5° N, 150°–90° W); these two distinct types of ENSO event are referred to as the CP-ENSO and EP-ENSO regimes, respectively. How the ENSO may change under future greenhouse warming is unknown, owing to a lack of inter-model agreement over the response of SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific to such warming. Here we find a robust increase in future EP-ENSO SST variability among CMIP5 climate models that simulate the two distinct ENSO regimes. We show that the EP-ENSO SST anomaly pattern and its centre differ greatly from one model to another, and therefore cannot be well represented by a single SST ‘index’ at the observed centre. However, although the locations of the anomaly centres differ in each model, we find a robust increase in SST variability at each anomaly centre across the majority of models considered. This increase in variability is largely due to greenhouse-warming-induced intensification of upper-ocean stratification in the equatorial Pacific, which enhances ocean–atmosphere coupling. An increase in SST variance implies an increase in the number of ‘strong’ EP-El Niño events (corresponding to large SST anomalies) and associated extreme weather events.

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