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Spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19: Comparison of the inhomogeneous SEPIR model and data from South Carolina
Abstract . During the COVID-19 pandemic authorities have been striving to obtain reliable predictions for the spreading dynamics of the disease. We recently developed a multi-"sub-populations" (multi-compartments: susceptible, exposed, pre-symptomatic, infectious, recovered) model, that accounts for the spatial in-homogeneous spreading of the infection and shown, for a variety of examples, how the epidemic curves are highly sensitive to location of epicenters, non-uniform population density, and local restrictions. In the present work we test our model against real-life data from South Carolina during the period May 22 to July 22 (2020). During this period, minimal restrictions have been employed, which allowed us to assume that the local basic reproduction number is constant in time. We account for the non-uniform population density in South Carolina using data from NASA, and predict the evolution of infection heat-maps during the studied period. Comparing the predicted heat-maps with those observed, we find a high qualitative resemblance. Moreover, the Pearson's correlation coefficient is relatively high thus validating our model against real-world data. We conclude that the model accounts for the major effects controlling spatial in-homogeneous spreading of the disease. Inclusion of additional sub-populations (compartments), in the spirit of several recently developed models for COVID-19, can be easily performed within our mathematical framework. Competing Interest Statement . The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement . No external funding has been received for this work Author Declarations . I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: N/A I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines and uploaded the relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material as supplementary files, if applicable. Yes Footnotes . These are the main changes made to the manuscript: 1. We changed the title of the manuscript to: "Spatio-temporal spread of COVID-19: Comparison of the inhomogeneous SEPIR model and data from South Carolina." 2. We have made very significant changes to the manuscript; we completely revamped the data mining and data analysis part. We now use data taken directly from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (DHEC) with a sub-county spatial resolution of zip codes. The time resolution remains one day. 3. We put the manuscript in PLOS ONE Latex template. 5. Figure 2 of the previous submission is now Figure 1. 6. The image in Figure 1 is taken from NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). It is free to the public and the license complies with PLOS ONE requirements. See copyright statement in https://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/privacy. 7. We added a Supporting Information material that includes two movies for all dates during the studied period, one is made of the observed heat-maps and the other is composed of our predicted heat-maps. 8. We added Fig. 5 to the Results section. Data Availability . 1) All simulations data will be provided uppon request. 2) The sources of data used for comparsion with the simulations are properly referenced in the manuscript. Copyright? The copyright holder for this preprint is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY-NC 4.0 International license . .
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