Real-time monitoring the transmission potential of COVID-19 in Singapore, February 2020
Amna Tariq, Yiseul Lee, Kimberlyn Roosa, Seth Blumberg, Ping Yan, Stefan Ma, Gerardo Chowell
doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.21.20026435
Abstract
Abstract Background The ongoing COVID-19 epidemic that spread widely in China since December 2019 is now generating local transmission in multiple countries including Singapore as of February 27, 2020. This highlights the need to monitor in real time the transmission potential of COVID-19. In Singapore, four major COVID-19 case clusters have emerged thus far. Methods Here we estimate the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19 in Singapore from the publicly available daily case series of imported and autochthonous cases by date of symptoms onset, after adjusting the local cases for reporting delays. We also derive the reproduction number from the distribution of cluster sizes using a branching process analysis.
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